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Sunday, 25 October 2009

Blacksburg's Playoff Picture: Clear with a Win, Cloudy with a Loss


Hopes are high in Blacksburg as the Fall 2009 season winds down, and Blackburg has plenty of motivation to finish strong. If Blacksburg wins its final match against Virginia in Charlottesville this Saturday, Blacksburg will win the Virginia Rugby Union Senior Men's Division III competition and enjoy top seeding in the upcoming Mid-Atlantic Rugby Football Union (MARFU) Senior Men's Division III knockout rounds.

If Blacksburg fails to grab a win, though, the picture gets a little bit cloudier. Here are the potential scenarios based on current competition standings and the tiebreaker format laid out in the Virginia Rugby Union Handbook:

If Blacksburg beats Virginia, Blacksburg wins the VRU (Both sides will be 5-1 and Blacksburg finishes first based on the head-to-head tiebreaker).

If Blacksburg loses to Virginia AND Roanoke and Virginia Beach both win their final matches, Blacksburg finishes second in the VRU (Virginia finishes first with a 5-1 record. Blacksburg, Virginia Beach, and Roanoke will all be 4-2 and in a three-way draw based on the head-to-head tiebreaker, so Virginia Beach will finish fourth based on weakest points differential in the matches played between the three sides. Then, Blacksburg will finish second and Roanoke third based on the head-to-head tiebreaker after Virginia Beach is eliminated from the three-way draw based on weakest points differential.*)

If Blacksburg loses to Virginia AND Roanoke wins its final match AND Virginia Beach loses its final match, Blacksburg finishes second in the VRU (Virginia finishes first with a 5-1 record. Blacksburg and Roanoke will be 4-2. Blacksburg will finish second and Roanoke third based on the head-to-head tiebreaker.)

If Blacksburg loses to Virginia AND Roanoke and Virginia Beach both lose their final matches, Blacksburg finishes second in the VRU (Virginia will be 5-1 and finish first. Blacksburg will be 4-2 and finish second.)

If Blacksburg loses to Virginia AND Roanoke loses its final match AND Virginia Beach wins its final match, Blacksburg finishes third in the VRU (Virginia and Virginia Beach will be 5-1 and Virginia will finish first based on the head-to-head tiebreaker. Virginia Beach will finish second. Blacksburg will be 4-2 and finish third.)

In summary, Blacksburg can finish no lower than third in the VRU. Three sides from the VRU will go to the MARFU knockout matches, so Blacksburg has clinched a berth in those playoff rounds. The only remaining question is what seed Blacksburg will take. The possibilities are brain-numbing, so the simplest answer for Blacksburg is to win on Saturday in Charlottesville and win the VRU competition.

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*Per the VRU Handbook: "For ties between three or more clubs, if two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker reverts to step 1 of the process." Step 1 is "Head-to-head record among the tied teams," and Step 2 is "Largest point differential (points for minus points against) between tied teams (e.g., teams with the same record)."